Ammunition market seen reaching $40.34 billion by 2035

The global ammunition market is projected to nearly double from 2025 to 2035 as governments replenish stockpiles, modernize armed forces and expand domestic production. Europe and North America are driving much of the demand, while precision-guided and greener ammunition products gain share.

Why it matters: - The ammunition market is being reshaped by higher defense spending, stockpile replenishment and a push for more precise weapons. - The shift matters for military readiness, domestic industrial capacity and supply-chain resilience across major defense regions. - Demand is also broadening beyond armies, with law enforcement and civilian shooting markets adding support.

What happened: - The global ammunition market is forecast to rise from $21.59 billion in 2025 to $40.34 billion by 2035. - The forecast implies a 6.50% compound annual growth rate over the period. - The market covers bullets, cartridges, artillery shells, mortars and guided munitions. - End users include military forces, law enforcement agencies and civilian buyers. - The report was published on July 23, 2026.

The details: - Precision-guided ammunition is gaining traction as militaries seek higher accuracy, lower collateral damage and better mission efficiency. - GPS- and laser-guided systems are driving research and development spending and higher procurement budgets. - Countries in Europe, Asia-Pacific and the Middle East are investing in domestic production to cut import dependence and improve supply security. - Governments are supporting local manufacturers with subsidies, partnerships and regulatory backing. - Environmental pressure is pushing manufacturers toward lead-free and non-toxic ammunition. - Automation, robotics, artificial intelligence and smart factory systems are improving production speed and reducing errors. - Civilian shooting sports, especially in North America, are sustaining demand for small-caliber ammunition. - Small-caliber ammunition remains the dominant caliber segment because of its use across military, law enforcement and civilian applications. - Bullets and cartridges hold a significant share, while artillery shells and mortars are gaining importance in large-scale warfare. - Non-guided ammunition still leads in volume, but guided ammunition is growing faster. - The military segment is the largest end-user, followed by law enforcement. - Land-based platforms account for the majority of demand.

Between the lines: - The market is moving from volume-driven demand toward higher-value products and more localized production. - That shift favors suppliers that can scale precision munitions, build regional plants and meet stricter environmental rules. - Europe stands out as the fastest-growing major region, pointing to a sustained rearmament and industrial policy cycle. - The U.S. and NATO stockpile push suggests near-term demand will stay elevated even if geopolitical conditions stabilize.

What's next: - The European Commission’s Act in Support of Ammunition Production, adopted in July 2023, allocated EUR 500 million for 31 projects across 15 EU countries. - The program targets shortages of critical ammunition types, including 155 mm artillery shells. - Governments are expected to keep backing capacity expansion as defense inventories remain a priority. - New greenfield plants in Eastern Europe and broader domestic manufacturing in emerging markets could add supply over the forecast period.

The bottom line: - Ammunition demand is no longer just a wartime spike story. - The market is being pulled higher by long-term defense modernization, industrial policy and a faster shift to precision weapons.